PhysicsMeasurements › Estimation and orders of magnitude

Estimation and orders of magnitude

An order-of-magnitude estimate is a rough answer worked in powers of ten, built from a few sensible assumptions in a few seconds. Its job is to show whether a full calculation has come out at a plausible size.

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Builds on SI units and prefixes.

IN THIS TOPIC

  • Give a quantity's order of magnitude as the nearest power of ten.
  • Carry a handful of benchmarks, chain them through an equation, and use the result to audit what your calculator says.

COMMON MISCONCEPTION

If it came out of the calculator, it must be right.

The unit of the game is the power of ten

An order of magnitude is a power of ten. To give one, round the quantity to the nearest power. 700 J sits nearer 10310^{3} than 10210^{2}, so its order of magnitude is 10310^{3} J. Two quantities differ by three orders of magnitude when one is about a thousand times the other.

An orders-of-magnitude ladder from an atom to the Earth10⁻¹⁰ mdiameter of an atom10⁻⁴ mwidth of a human hair10⁰ mheight of a person10⁴ mheight of Everest10⁷ mdiameter of the Earth
FIG. 1Lengths placed by exponent. On this scale a person sits seven rungs below the Earth and ten above an atom.

Working in exponents makes enormous comparisons manageable. An atom at 101010^{−10} m and the Earth at 10710^{7} m are seventeen rungs apart on the ladder, a factor of 101710^{17}, and you can say so without ever writing the zeros out.

Carry benchmarks

Estimation runs on a pocketful of memorised anchors. A door is about 2 m; a person is around 70 kg; water has a density of 1000 kg m−3 and air roughly 1.2 kg m−3; a car travels near 30 m s−1 on a motorway; mains appliances draw a few kilowatts.

The Labrador as a reference mass: about 36 kilogramsone Labrador ≈ 36 kgan adult person≈ 2 Labradorsa grand piano≈ 8 Labradorsa small car≈ 30 Labradors
FIG. 2My favourite reference mass. Scaling an unknown against a familiar object is faster and safer than plucking kilograms from the air.

Comparison beats recall from nowhere, every time. A grand piano is unfamiliar; eight Labradors is not. Anchor to something you can picture and the estimate lands within an order of magnitude, which is all the game asks of you.

Estimate, then derive

What is really being tested is the derived estimate, where rough inputs get fed through real physics. Try the energy to climb a flight of stairs. Lifting a 70 kg person needs a force near 700 N, taking g as 10, and a flight rises about 3 m, so the energy is roughly 700 × 3 ≈ 2000 J, order of magnitude 10310^{3} J. Round brutally as you go. The powers of ten do the work, and the details cancel out of an order-of-magnitude answer anyway.

Then let the estimate do its real job. Run it before the precise calculation, and compare. If the calculator says 10610^{6} J for the stairs, the estimate has just caught a slipped unit or a mistyped power, three orders before the examiner does.

WORKED EXAMPLE

A sprinter's kinetic energy

Estimate the kinetic energy of a person sprinting flat out.

Pick benchmarks: a person is about 70 kg, and a fast sprint is about 8 m s−1.

E = ½mv2 = ½ × 70 × 82 = 2240 J, so the order of magnitude is 103 J.

The benchmarks could each be off by tens of per cent without moving the power of ten, which is what makes the method dependable.

GUIDED PRACTICE

Seconds in a lifetime

Estimate, to the nearest order of magnitude, the number of seconds in a human lifetime. Set out the chain of factors.

Show the working

About 80 years × 365 days × 24 hours × 3600 seconds ≈ 2.5 × 109.

Order of magnitude: 109 s. A few billion seconds each: spend them well.

INDEPENDENT PRACTICE

The pressure under your feet

Estimate the pressure a standing person exerts on the floor, choosing your own benchmarks for weight and foot area.

Show the working

Weight about 700 N; two feet cover roughly 0.03 m2.

p = F/A ≈ 700/0.03 ≈ 2 × 104 Pa, so 104 Pa, roughly a quarter of atmospheric pressure. Stand on one heel and the same force concentrates tenfold. Hence the wince.

ASSESSMENT FOCUS

  • Asked for an order of magnitude, answer with a power of ten and a unit. A four-figure calculation is wasted time here, and it can bury the mark you were after.
  • State the assumptions you feed in. “Taking the mass of an adult as 70 kg” is creditable working, not padding, and estimates want one significant figure with g ≈ 10 throughout.
  • An answer three orders from your estimate is almost always a unit slip, grams for kilograms or millimetres for metres. Check the conversions before you check the physics.

CHECK YOURSELF

Estimate, to the nearest order of magnitude, the energy needed to climb one flight of stairs.

Show a hint

The force is your weight. Take g as 10 and a flight as about 3 m.

Show the answer

Weight of a person: about 70 kg × 10 = 700 N. Height of a flight: about 3 m.

Energy = force × distance ≈ 700 × 3 = 2100 J, so the order of magnitude is 10310^{3} J, a couple of kilojoules.

The exact answer depends on the person and the staircase, and that is fine. Anyone whose calculation of this quantity produces 10610^{6} J has found an error, not a big staircase.

Estimate before you calculate.

The calculator's answer must land near it.

WORKBOOK

Printable practice for this topic: original exam-style questions with room to work, and a fully worked answer book. Free to use; please do not redistribute or sell.

18 questions on this topicAnswer them one at a time and mark yourself against the mark scheme.Practise this topic

Or read them with their mark schemes on the estimation and orders of magnitude questions page.

6 flashcards on this topicDefinitions, off-sheet equations and a spot-the-error card, scheduled by spaced repetition in your browser.Revise with flashcards

WHERE TO GO NEXT

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

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  • Give a quantity's order of magnitude as the nearest power of ten.
  • Carry a handful of benchmarks, chain them through an equation, and use the result to audit what your calculator says.

Open the full revision checklist to track your progress across the whole unit.